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Safe Parliamentary Seats in Politics

(4 posts)

  1. UK Voter
    Key Master

    Is there such a thing as a safe parliamentary seat?

    From the 2009 EU Elections.

    45 million eligible voters
    15 million actually voted

    30 million did not vote.

    In the EU election the Conservatives gained the highest percentage of votes ~27% which is just over 4 million votes.

    It doesn't take a math genius to work out IF all 30 million non voters decided to vote as a group, whoever they voted for would win by the biggest landslide ever. And this would be true in safe seats as well.

    So although this is not going to happen, the principle is there.

    It's basic maths, not saying it will ever happen, but a more realistic example is a place like Boston & Skegness had a 58.8% turnout out of 71,212 eligible voters.

    This means over 29,000 people in that constituency didn't vote.

    The Conservatives won with 19,000 votes (Labour got 6,000 fewer votes) so again those 29,000 people who think their vote is a waste of time COULD have determined who won. Would have taken 7,000 to put Labour in power, 16,000 for UKIP or Liberal Democrats, 18,000 for the BNP and 19,000 for the Green party.

    So any party could have taken power if enough people who think voting is a waste of time got of their collective arses and bothered to vote.

    Do the maths for yourself:

    Turnout figures at UK General Election 2005 Voter Turnout

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    Posted 3 years ago #

  2. AndrewRT
    Member

    Your premise is flawed because it assumes that all the non-voters would vote for a new party. A more likely scenario for the B&S result is something like this:

    Voted Non-Voters Total
    Con supporters 19,300 10,000 29,300
    Lab supporters 13,400 10,000 23,400
    Other 9,200 9,000 18,200
    TOTAL 41,900 29,000

    To actually have changed the result the Labour party would have had to have attracted twice as many of the "non voters" than the tories - not likely in a constituency that where won a clear plurality.

    Posted 3 years ago #

  3. UK Voter
    Key Master

    I did say multiple times it's in principle/theory not what would happen in reality. My point was with so many people not bothering to vote, in theory there is no such thing as a safe seat IF those that didn't vote, voted as a group. The reason we have the current situation is voter apathy and a lack of real choice.

    I plan to vote Labour to try to keep the Conservatives out of power (I don't like what they stand for). I'm not positively voting for Labour I'm negatively voting against the Conservatives! In the area I live the Conservatives are almost certainly going to win, though it's not considered a safe Conservative seat, the Tories did win by 6,000 votes so with Labours vote falling since 2005 I don't see any realistic chance of a Labour win here. I doubt well see any new Labour seats (beyond boundary changed seats) in 2010, best case scenario for Labour is they don't loose too many seats!

    If there was a real choice beyond Labour or the Tories and I liked what they stood for I'd vote for them.

    David

    Posted 3 years ago #

  4. paulmarkj
    Member

    I live in a safe seat, and it is safe because most people are Tories. The non-voters are mostly Tories and I suspect if 100% voted, the 2 to 1 ratio of Tory to Liberal would remain.

    Posted 3 years ago #

  5. pradap
    Member

    I plan to vote Labour to try to keep the Conservatives out of power (I don't like what they stand for). I'm not positively voting for Labour I'm negatively voting against the Conservatives! In the area I live the Conservatives are almost certainly going to win, though it's not considered a safe Conservative seat, the Tories did win by 6,000 votes so with Labours vote falling since 2005 I don't see any realistic chance of a Labour win here..............
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    Posted 2 years ago #

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